Gov. Andy Beshear didn’t carry a single county in westernmost Kentucky, the old “Democratic Gibraltar” where Republicans now occupy every state House and Senate seat.
Democrats are likely to have a tough time recapturing many of those lost seats in November, according to party activist and campaign consultant Daniel Hurt of Grand Rivers in Livingston County.
“Straight-ticket Republican voting is hurting us all across the state,” Hurt said. “It’s going to be harder for us with Trump on the ballot again. But our candidates can win if they can convince enough voters to look at them and not just vote straight Republican.”
Like in 2018, most Republican House and Senate candidates, especially in rural areas, will almost certainly try to nationalize their campaigns, emphasizing social issues like guns and abortion.
Most, too, will cling tightly to Trump. Win or lose nationally, he’s almost certain to again carry conservative, mostly rural, 87 percent white, Bible-Belt Kentucky. The president swept 118 of the state’s 120 counties, losing only Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington) to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“Our candidates need to focus on local issues — issues like jobs and healthcare — that directly affect the people that live in their districts,” Hurt said. “They also need to stress that they can team up with Gov. Beshear to get things done in their districts.”
West KY Scorecard
House
1st — Steven Rudy (R), Carroll Hubbard (new R)— no D
2nd — Richard Heath (R), no D
3rd — Randy Bridges (R), Corbin Snardon (D)
4th — Lynn Bechler (R), Alonzo Pennington (D)
5th — Mary Beth Imes (R), Shannon Davis-Roberts (D)
6th — Chris Freeland (R), Al Cunningham and Linda Story Edwards (D)
Senate
1st — Jason Howell (R) — no D
Democrats in the eight-county Jackson Purchase — as far west as Kentucky goes — won’t get a chance to elect a candidate of their party in two House districts and a Senate district.
No Democrat took on state Rep. Steven Rudy of Paducah in the First District. Even so, the incumbent has an unlikely primary opponent – former Democratic First District Congressman Carroll Hubbard of Paducah, who switched to the GOP.
Second House District Republican Rep. Richard Heath of Mayfield also lacks a Democratic foe. Nor will Republican Jason G. Howell, Murray, face a Democrat in the First Senate district.
“It used to be that if you were a Democrat, the further west you went, the more likely you were to win,” said Hurt, who at 26 is one of the youngest members of the party’s State Central Executive Committee. “That’s changed.”
For about a century after Kentucky went to primary elections around 1905, the Democrat who won the primary almost always won the election in the old First Congressional District, which took in the Purchase and western Pennyrile counties.
The territory was dubbed Kentucky’s “Democratic Gibraltar” for its fealty to the old party of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson, for whom the Purchase is named.
But the realignment has more to do with party labels than shifting political philosophies. Generations of white Democrats were more conservative than Democrats up north and out west.
Today, not a single Democrat west of Henderson County sits in the House. The Senate has no Democrats west of Hardin County.
If the governor’s race is a harbinger, November doesn’t look especially promising for Democrats in Hurt’s neck of the Bluegrass State woods.
Beshear’s best showing was in Calloway and McCracken counties. He won nearly 42 percent of ballots cast in the latter, buoying Hurt’s hopes for a pickup in the Third House District, mostly Paducah and its environs.
He believes Democrat Corbin Snardon has a good chance to wrest the seat from freshman GOP Rep. Randy Bridges. Both candidates are Paducahans.
Snardon is assistant principal at Paducah Middle School. “He should do well among teachers,” Hurt said.
In addition, organized labor is still strong in Paducah. Unions consider Bridges one of the most anti-labor lawmakers in Frankfort. He supports the state’s “right to work” law and for a measure that repealed the prevailing wage on state-funded construction projects.
And, Bridges, who is white, was accused of racism when he shouted, “Sit down!” at Rep. Charles Booker, D-Louisville, during a heated debate over abortion. Booker, who is African American, is running for the U.S. Senate in in May’s crowded Democratic primary.
While Booker’s bid is historic, so is Snardon’s. He’s apparently the first African American to file to run for the state legislature in the Jackson Purchase.
“Incumbents are most vulnerable the first time they have to run for reelection,” Hurt said. “Snardon is an educator, and he has name recognition because of his involvement in different community and civic organizations.”
Snardon is second vice president and education chair of the Paducah-McCracken County NAACP branch. “He is young, and I think people in the Third District are ready for someone new and younger to lead them,” Hurt said.
Hurt is less sanguine about Democratic chances elsewhere in his end of Kentucky. But he’s glad to see challengers. “You can’t win if you don’t run.”
Alonzo Pennington, Princeton, will square off against state Rep. Lynn Bechler, Marion, in the Fourth District.
Pennington ran for Congress in the 2018 Democratic primary. He lost in a landslide to Paul Walker of Murray, who lost in a landslide to incumbent Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville).
“Though he did not do well in the primary, Pennington carried Caldwell and Lyon counties,” Hurt said. “He grew up in Princeton [the Caldwell County seat] and is from a prominent musical family. Everybody enjoys his and his father’s music, and he is well liked.”
Beshear claimed nearly 44 percent of the vote in Calloway County, which is the biggest chunk of the Fifth House District where the race pits two more newcomers: Republican Mary Beth Imes and Democrat Shannon Davis-Roberts, both of Murray. Imes is the wife of GOP County Judge-Executive Kenny Imes, who held the House seat for many years.
“The election would have been more of a tossup if Imes had not entered the race,” Hurt said. “Her name recognition in the district is pretty overwhelming.”
In a rematch from the 2018 Democratic primary, Al Cunningham and Linda Story Edwards are are vying for a crack at first-term Sixth District State Rep. Chris Freeland. Edwards previously defeated fellow Marshall countians Cunningham and Drew Williams.
Freeland, also from Marshall County, beat Edwards in the general election.
“I do believe the district leans Republican, but if the Democrats have the right message, either one of them can win,” Hurt said. “Freeland hasn’t made a lot of noise in Frankfort, but the Marshall fiscal court and county judge-executive have caused some local controversies that the Democrats may be able to capitalize on.”
Edwards is a retired teacher; Freeland was one of her students. “Teachers helped her win the primary last time when they were marching on Frankfort against Gov. Bevin,” Hurt said. “But the landscape has changed with Andy Beshear. There’s not a target in the governor’s office now.”
Cunningham is a retired Painters’ union official. Many district voters belong to unions.
Hurt said the Rudy-Hubbard match up might be the wild card primary race. Rudy is an established cog in GOP House leadership; he chairs the Appropriations and Revenue Committee.
Hubbard, who lives in Paducah, served time in federal prison for pleading guilty to federal campaign finance law violations. In 2006 and 2008, he ran unsuccessfully for the Kentucky Senate, where he served before the voters elevated him to Congress.
“Rudy is the clear favorite,” Hurt said. “But in his day, Hubbard was a master at constituent services. If your son or daughter graduated from high school or you celebrated an anniversary and it was in the paper, he’d send you a card or a letter with the clipping. He also showed up at weddings and funerals.
“On the one hand, a lot of people who got those clippings have passed on. On the other hand, many may still be around and may have switched to the Republicans like he did. It will be an interesting primary.”
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