Kentucky moved the filing deadline to January 10, so even at this very early date we know who is running for office in the primary in May. Here’s my thoughts on the election now that we’ve seen who has filed.
The House
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In the House, 60 seats will be contested.
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Democrats have a candidate in 74 seats, meaning that 26 Republicans are going to win without an opponent.
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I am mostly okay with this! I wish Democrats could run in every district, and this is definitely worse than in 2018, when more than 90 seats were contested. However, the territory where Democrats aren’t running is tough – mostly the “Old 5th” around Somerset and London, and the rural parts of the Pennyrile and Purchase, as well as some of the Northern Kentucky districts away from the river.
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Republicans are leaving 16 seats uncontested.
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Republicans aren’t running many candidates (outside their incumbents) in Louisville and Lexington. 10 of the 14 Louisville districts held by Democrats are going uncontested by Republicans, as well as 3 of the 5 districts in Lexington. Also going without opponents are Angie Hatton (in a District won by Donald Trump by 65%+ of the vote) and Patti Minter. Rep. Minter’s seat might as well be in Louisville, though.
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14 seats will see a contested Democratic primary.
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Several are in Louisville, where four incumbents are being challenged, and two people are running to replace Charles Booker, who is running for Senate.
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Small cities also will see several contested primaries: Richmond has a primary (Martina Jackson is on today, Mike Eaves will be on later this month), and Winchester and Versailles both have three candidates.
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32 districts will have a GOP primary.
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The Senate
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On the Senate side, the GOP is defending a lot of territory, and isn’t playing much offense. Of the 19 seats up for grabs this election, eight will be contested by both parties, and of those eight seats, Republicans hold six.
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Democrats are leaving five seats uncontested. I am a little disappointed that Whitney Westerfield didn’t draw an opponent: Hopkinsville went for Andy Beshear. However, the rest of the territory would have been tough. Also, Sen. Westerfield isn’t so bad, so far as GOP Senators go.
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Republicans failed to field a single candidate in Louisville or Lexington on the Senate side. I honestly think that the Senate GOP might think their caucus is too big and are looking to get smaller.
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All six of the districts in the US House will be contested by both parties. I haven’t tracked this very closely outside of the 6th district (where Democrat Josh Hicks is challenging Andy Barr), but we will be on the lookout for good candidates.
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There are a lot of seats that could very well flip sides! Both sides are facing a significant number of retirements, and the Democratic caucus will likely see even more diversification in their caucus with the number of white men who are retiring.
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For the show: we have scheduled a few weeks out with some candidates who were early to file. Now that we know who will have a primary, we hope to get as many candidates in districts with contested primaries ahead of May, and then everybody else after that.
- There are a lot of races I am very interested in this cycle:
- I think the Democratic primary in Versailles/Lexington and Richmond give Democrats a very distinct choice and it will be interesting to speak with all the candidates and to see who comes out on top.
- In the general election, I am hoping Democrats can defend some of the seats where they are seeing incumbents retiring, especially in Pikeville and Scottsville.
- I think there is a lot of potential for Democrats to pick up seats in Louisville and Lexington in territory that has historically been very Republican, but has trended VERY blue in recent elections. This is also true of the Covington Senate seat, where my friend Ryan Olexia is running.
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