Governor-elect Andy Beshear, set to be sworn in next month, stumped the state promising to protect pensions for public employees, including teachers, police, firefighters, and other first responders.
Pension reform will be the biggest issue facing Beshear, a Democrat, and the GOP-super-majority General Assembly, according to Dr. Stephen Voss, a University of Kentucky political science professor.
Lawmakers return to Frankfort in January. Republicans command a whopping 29-9 Senate majority and a 61-39 bulge in the House.
“Financing those pensions already has required diverting funding from existing needs and programs, but without significant tax increases, the pressures on the budget will only get worse,” Voss said. “Ignoring the pension crisis would not appear to be an option for Beshear after he just narrowly won the governorship based on a campaign fought over that very issue.”
Beshear defeated Bevin by about 5,100 votes. He acknowledged that teacher support was vital to his victory.
“We’ve made a promise to our teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other public employees that they’ll be able to retire with dignity, and under my watch, Kentucky will keep that promise,” Beshear’s campaign website pledged to voters.
On the campaign trail, Beshear said he favored pumping more money into pensions through expanding gaming and legalizing medical marijuana, not a tax hike.
“Beshear’s party will want him to address the pension crisis through revenue increases so that he does not need to slice other policies and programs, but that seems unlikely because, even if he gets expanded gambling and taxable medical marijuana, avoiding budget cuts likely would require persuading GOP legislators to raise taxes again.” Voss said.
“Beshear’s big challenge will be balancing the promise to address Kentucky’s pension crisis, on the one hand, and the expectation among his supporters that he will adequately fund ongoing programs in education, transportation, and so on. The promises of the past are on a collision course with the need to invest in the future, and Beshear will be stuck trying to reconcile an almost impossible situation.”
Voss is more optimistic about the new governor finding common ground with Republican lawmakers on battling the drug addiction crisis in Kentucky. “Desperate to show that they can govern, the Democratic governor and Republican legislative leaders likely will figure out a way to address that public-health crisis.”
Reaching a consensus on health care will probably be harder, Voss said. “Beshear can stop executive initiatives set in motion by his predecessor, but ultimately keeping his promises with regard to health care requires budgetary approval from the legislature. The governor will find among the Republicans a subset of legislators committed to protecting benefits provided to their constituents, but coming up with proposals that please both moderate Republicans and his own party caucus likely will not be easy.”
Redistricting didn’t seem to generate much buzz in the governor’s race. But it will likely be an issue in next year’s legislative races. Redistricting will follow the 2020 census.
“The challenge for Republicans will be maintaining party unity,” Voss said. If the Republicans stick together on a plan, they can beat back a Beshear veto, he added. Under the state constitution, a simple majority of both houses overrides a veto.
“But party-drawn legislative maps often create enough disgruntled members that they might be tempted to embrace a rival plan instead.” Voss said that “maintaining perfect unity may not be easy if the maps are going to meet constitutional redistricting requirements.”
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