A new poll conducted in five swing states shows an 11-point swing among evangelicals and Catholics from President Trump to his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.
The poll, commissioned by the Christian activist group Vote Common Good, surveyed 1,430 registered voters (792 Evangelicals and 638 Catholics) in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to the survey report, “the sample was matched to the specific demographic profile (gender, age, ethnicity) and overall ratio of Evangelicals to Catholics in each state.”
The two top-line findings:
- Among swing state Catholics, 2020 is currently on track to produce a +16% swing towards Joe Biden over the 2016 result. Specifically, whereas Clinton lost Catholics to Trump in 2016 (R 50%/D 36%), Biden is on track to win Catholics (R 43%/D 45%).
- Among swing state Evangelicals, 2020 is currently on track to produce a +7% swing towards Joe Biden over the 2016 result. Whereas Clinton lost Evangelicals to Trump by a large margin in 2016 (R 59%/D 25%), Biden is on track to lose that group by a narrower margin (R 59%/D 33%).
Graphs by State and Religious Affiliation
Evangelical results
Catholic results
Other findings of interest
- Ratings on the seven cardinal virtues
- On average, across all virtues, 50% of respondents rated Biden as more virtuous than Trump, and 39% rated Trump as more virtuous than Biden.
- The largest gap between candidates emerged for the virtues of humility and modesty.
- Ratings on the seven deadly sins
- On average, across all sins, 51% rated Trump as more sinful than Biden, and 37% of respondents rated Biden as more sinful than Trump.
- The largest gap between candidates emerged for the sins of pride and anger.
- The strongest predictors of voters moving from Trump to Biden
- A series of logistic regression models identified the perceived sins and virtues (for both Trump and Biden) that are the biggest drivers of 2016 Trump voters defecting in 2020 (i.e., switching to Biden/not voting/voting for a third party). Among all 7 virtues and all 7 sins for both candidates, the perception that Trump lacks basic Christian kindness is the strongest driver of defecting from Trump in 2020.
- Indeed, 7 out of the top 8 predictors of Trump 2016 voters defecting concern Trump’s perceived absence of Christian virtues, rather than Trump’s sins or Biden’s sins or virtues.
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