Another election day has come and gone! Despite some overtime drama, I am almost certain that Andy Beshear will be the next Governor of Kentucky. Andy Beshear won this election by the thinnest of margins by depending on four distinct groups. Each piece of his coalition is full of different sorts of people with different reasons for voting Democratic in 2019. But, each piece of the coalition was absolutely vital to his win.
The urban-rural divide is a topic that has been widely discussed across the country. Everywhere in the United States, urban dwellers have grown significantly more progressive and willing to vote for Democrats, while rural areas have grown significantly more Republican. In Kentucky, two pieces of Andy Beshear’s coalition come directly from the urban-rural divide. The first piece of the coalition is the most obvious: Louisville and Lexington. Here’s a map of the margins by county across the state:
A version of this map ran in the New York Times, but I think they used a log scale on the margins, and it wasn’t as clear how much BIGGER Louisville and Lexington were than other places in the state. The only counties where Matt Bevin scored a margin greater than 5,000 votes were Boone, Pulaski, and Laurel. The average margin Matt Bevin secured in the counties he won was 1,163 — but the median percentage margin Bevin won by in the counties he won was 21%. This indicates that even though Bevin won by a large percentage in many counties, they were too small to create much of a cushion for him.
Meanwhile, the margin in Jefferson County was absolutely bonkers. As has been widely reported, Andy Beshear secured an almost 99,000 vote edge in Louisville Metro. In 2018, Louisville reelected mayor Greg Fischer in what I thought then was a huge blowout — 77,000 votes. John Yarmuth (who doesn’t have ALL of Jefferson county in his district, but very close to it) won by 72,000. Andy Beshear increased that already huge margin by more than 30% against an incumbent Governor. Fayette County is much the same story. Linda Gorton won a larger-than-expected margin in the mayoral race in Lexington by 27,000 votes, and Amy McGrath’s 25,000 vote edge over Andy Barr almost carried her to Congress. Andy Beshear won Fayette County by 40% more than those two candidates. Louisville and Lexington are, without a doubt, the most important pieces of Andy Beshear’s coalition. They delivered the most votes, and are the most reliably Democratic voters across the state. But, they aren’t enough to secure a win.
On the podcast last week, I predicted a sizable win for Andy Beshear. I based my guess on the idea that even outside of my friends and neighbors in Louisville and Lexington, everyone I spoke to said they were voting for Andy Beshear, and all their friends planned to as well. My family in Ashland, friends in Richmond, Henderson, Paducah, and everywhere seemed to ready to elect Andy Beshear. In retrospect, I was still talking to people in a bubble. Even though these places are smaller cities, they are still cities. The urban-rural divide in Kentucky extends beyond Louisville and Lexington. The second piece of Andy Beshear’s coalition are urban voters in small cities. Take a look at these maps:
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There are many more examples across the state, but these are six counties with small cities. Beshear won the overall counties in the top four, and lost in the bottom two. However, he won by huge margins inside the city boundaries. I’ve been wondering aloud on the podcast how to consider small cities — they aren’t the same as Louisville or Lexington, but they aren’t the countryside, either. They also aren’t suburban. They are their own political entities, and have been an underrated source of Democratic votes in Kentucky for several cycles. Democrats have done a good job in Louisville and Lexington of pushing out into the suburbs. To build a bigger coalition, Democrats should do all they can to maintain the votes of citizens in small cities, and push out beyond the boundaries of these cities.
A major talking point of national political writers since the 2018 election has been the movement of suburban voters to the Democratic Party. A Democratic organizer was texting me on the night before the election, and the last thing they told me was “unless Northern Kentucky starts acting like the rest of the country’s suburbs, it will be a heartbreaker.” They were absolutely right. The third piece of Andy Beshear’s coalition was Northern Kentucky, who broke in a big way towards Democrats this year.
Historically, Republicans in Kentucky come from two places: the south-central region centered around Somerset and Corbin, and Northern Kentucky. Before Matt Bevin, the most recent Republican Governor was Ernie Fletcher, who won Kenton County by 30%, Campbell County by 27%, and Boone County by *43%* in a race he won by about 10%. Northern Kentucky has been a home base for Republicans for a long time. National politics have had a major impact on other areas of Kentucky, and it appears that they have finally started making an impact in Northern Kentucky. Andy Beshear outright won in Kenton and Campbell counties, and kept it within 15% in Boone county.
What happens next in Northern Kentucky is a major open question for me going forward. While Andy Beshear was able to put two of the three counties in Northern Kentucky into his column this year, Greg Stumbo and Heather French Henry did not fare as well — losing all three counties by significant margins. Democrats need to identify the best way to replicate their success in the gubernatorial election in Northern Kentucky if they want to win in the future. Northern Kentucky is the third piece of Andy Beshear’s coalition, and in my opinion, the biggest wildcard moving forward.
Andy Beshear won because he was able to put together a coalition of urban and suburban voters across the entire state — not just Louisville and Lexington. But, he also had a key fourth piece to his coalition: Appalachian counties. Here are a few more maps of other counties won by Andy Beshear.
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In an election this close, every piece of the coalition is super important. The combined margin for Andy Beshear in Elliott, Rowan, Wolfe, Magoffin, Floyd, Boyd, Bath, Carter, and Breathitt counties added to 4,551 — the unofficial total margin right now is 5,086. These Eastern Kentucky counties delivered for Andy Beshear in a big way. Unlike small cities, Andy Beshear’s support is much more spread out in these places — he won the majority of precincts in these counties, but often by a slightly smaller margin. Support in these areas worked a lot differently than it did in counties with small cities or in Louisville and Lexington, but it ended up being the difference.
All four pieces of Andy Beshear’s coalition were vital, and his campaign worked very hard to win the votes in all four places. Voters in Appalachia, small cities, Northern Kentucky, and urban centers are an odd grouping, with different lived experiences. But, they all came together to deliver the smallest of wins for Andy Beshear in 2019. Democrats need to find ways to appease all these groups at the same time, and extend into new territory. Looking at the future as a Democrat in Kentucky in 2019 is a harrowing task, but we must do it — and I believe we can.
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