9/25-27 weekend updates — Almost certainly a record number of cases

Editor’s note: Because of being covered up with other stories, we did not post the Kentucky Health News each morning as we normally do. So, we are posting the Friday-Saturday-Sunday updates as one story.

9/25 update — 7-day case average sets a record, with fifth highest daily total; 12 more die; schools in major metros not joining others in opening

Gov. Andy Beshear announced 930 new cases of the coronavirus Friday, the fifth highest daily total since the state reported its first case 203 days ago.

The number brought Kentucky’s unadjusted seven-day rolling average of daily new cases to a new high of 736, a big jump from Thursday’s 713. The previous record, 715, was set Sept. 4.

“We cannot continue to have days where we have 900-plus cases,” Beshear said in a release. “Please put on your mask. Please engage in social distancing. The lives and the health of the Kentuckians around us depend on it.”

The share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus in the past seven days was 4.48%, similar to the last four days.

Of today’s new cases, 131 were Kentuckians 18 and under, 23 of whom were children 5 and under. The youngest was 2 months old.

Beshear reported 12 more deaths from COVID-19, bringing the state’s death toll from the disease to 1,149.

“Today’s COVID report is far too many cases, and unfortunately far too many people who we’ve lost,” said Beshear. “This virus has come for us. We have to fight back.”

Most schools are expected to be open Monday, the earliest date Beshear said in-person instruction should begin, but the virus continues to be an obstacle to face-to-face classes in the state’s largest metropolitan areas.

Under Supt. Marty Pollio’s latest plan, Jefferson County Public Schools wouldn’t begin phasing in face-to-face classes until Oct. 22, and maybe not even then, if Louisville Metro’s infection rate doesn’t decline substantially.

The plan, which the school board will discuss Tuesday, would begin elementary classes Oct, 22, sixth and ninth grades Oct. 29, and the rest Nov. 5 – if the county’s infection rate drops below 10 cases per 100,000 people. It is now 16.4.

“Pollio said a board vote establishing firm return dates would take place at a later time and be based on improved public health data,” the Courier Journal reports. “Friday marked the 22nd day of remote learning for JCPS students. But dozens of other Kentucky school districts have gone against Beshear’s wishes and already brought children back into classrooms.”

The Fayette County Board of Education took no action Friday at a meeting called to discuss returning to school after the county moved into the worst level, red, of the state’s color-coded system intended to guide decisions of school districts, Valarie Honeycutt Spears reports for the Lexington Herald-Leader.

Fayette County dropped barely into the orange level Friday, with 24.8 cases per 100,000. The red threshold, 25, comes with guidance to stop in-person schooling and athletic events. School officials had hoped to resume face-to-face classes Oct. 5, but Supt. Manny Caulk “said Friday that under the ‘worst case scenario,’ the school district may be looking at continuing remote learning until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available,” the Herald-Leader reports/

One challenge in Lexington is that 26 percent of its cases are in college students, most of them at the University of Kentucky. Lance Poston, a UK official helping run the university’s response to the pandemic, told the school board that only 5.5 percent of total exposures in UK’s tracking system are among Fayette County residents not affiliated with UK – “meaning the university is not contributing in any substantive way to what would be characterized as community spread,” the newspaper reports.

Off-campus parties involving UK students could be contributing to the increase in cases, Rick Childress reports for the Herald-Leader. UK received 10 reports last weekend about off-campus parties in nearby neighborhoods, and over Derby weekend, Lexington police said they got nearly 30 calls for noise complaints potentially linked to student parties, Childress reports.

In other COVID-19 news Friday:

Friday’s fatalities were an 86-year-old woman from Campbell County; an 85-year-old woman from Fayette County; an 86-year-old man from Fulton County; a 68-year-old woman from Grayson County; a 94-year-old woman and a 92-year-old man from Jefferson County; a 78-year-old man from Madison County; a 79-year-old man from Marshall County; a 74-year-old woman from McCracken County; and a 73-year-old man and two women, 62 and 96, from Warren County.
Counties with 10 or more new cases in the daily report were Jefferson, 200; Fayette, 85; Christian, 40; Daviess, 30; Warren, 29; Laurel and Madison, 26 each; Hardin, 21; Henderson and Pike, 17 each; Kenton, Knott, McCracken, and Whitley, 15 each; Campbell, Greenup, and Mercer, 13 each; Oldham, 12; Clay and Knox, 11 each; Harlan, Scott, and Shelby, 10 each.
The daily report shows 553 people are hospitalized in Kentucky for COVID-19 and 130 are in intensive care.
The long-term care report shows 67 more residents and 54 more staff have tested positive for the virus, with 571 active resident cases and 446 active staff cases. The report shows 648 resident deaths and five staff deaths associated with these facilities.
The college and university report shows six more students and one more employee have tested positive for the virus, with 1,403 active student cases and 46 active employee cases.
The K-12 schools report shows 114 more students and 18 more employees have tested positive for the virus, with 685 active student cases and 306 active employee cases.
About 20,000 more people will die from the coronavirus by mid-October, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts.
A recent CDC report said adults aged 20-29 accounted for more than 20% of total COVID-19 cases between June and August, outpacing all other age groups in the U.S. The study, published in the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on Wednesday, also suggests 20-somethings are a major driver of community spread of the virus. The Herald-Leader reviews the study. In Kentucky, 12,825 of the state’s 65,066 cases are in those between the ages of 20-29, the highest total number of cases of all of the age groups.
Medpage Today‘s Kristina Fiore explores the issue of “reshoring” production of personal protective equipment from other nations to the U.S., citing N95 masks as an example of American dependence on foreign suppliers: “Some companies have indeed boosted domestic PPE production capacity, but to make the U.S. self-sufficient in meeting its PPE needs for the next pandemic — or even to continue to meet the needs of the current one — it would take a sea change, industry representatives and analysts told MedPage Today.”
The Kaiser Family Foundation takes a deep dive into the effects of children’s health and well-being during the pandemic, including health risks from school openings and closures, social-distancing policies, loss of family income, and disruptions in health and social services, and what needs to happen in the future.

(Original story at KHN, written by Melissa Patrick and Al Cross)

9/26 update — 973 new cases, 4th highest day and biggest week yet; Beshear asks for mask wearing, says he sees less of it sometimes

Kentucky recorded 973 new cases of the novel coronavirus Saturday, the fourth highest daily number of the pandemic, and making almost certain the week will set a record.

Gov. Andy Beshear said in a press release, “We are on pace to have the single highest week in terms of positive cases that we’ve ever had.” The state reporting week is Monday through Sunday; the daily unadjusted totals in the calendar week that ends today is 5,113 cases, the highest ever.

“We simply have to do better,” Beshear said. “Please wear a mask. Sadly, sometimes I’m seeing less of these out there than more. This will save lives.”

Beshear said 132 of the day’s new cases were in Kentuckians 18 and younger, with 18 of them 5 and younger and the youngest 2 months old.

The state reported five more deaths from COVID-19, raising its death toll to 1,154.

“We’ve already lost more than 200,000 Americans,” Beshear said. “Do your part as Team Kentucky, do your patriotic duty – mask up, Kentucky. It may save the life of someone you know.”

The fatalities were an 88-year-old man and a 101-year-old woman from Boyd County, a 67-year-old man from Scott County; an 80-year-old woman from Union County; and an 86-year-old woman from Christian County.

The share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus in the last seven days remained relatively stable at 4.42%.

Counties with 10 or more new cases on the daily report were Jefferson, 235; Fayette, 108; Henderson, 35; Warren, 35; Whitley, 29; Laurel, 27; Pike, 25; Bullitt, 23; Christian, 20; Boone, 17; Mercer, 17; Franklin, 16; Kenton, 15; Knox, 15; Boyd, 13; Daviess, 13; Scott, 13; Calloway, 12; Hardin, 12; McCracken, 11; and Jessamine, 10.

In other COVID-19 news Saturday:

If you’re wearing a mask but not covering your nose, “You’re doing it all wrong,” the Toronto Star reports. “Evidence is emerging that COVID-19 has an easier time infecting people through the nasal passage, compared to the mouth.”
The University of Washington estimated that if 95% of Americans wear a mask in public, 100,000 lives could be saved by the end of the year. But even with that unlikely development, the cumulative U.S. death toll would still be between 250,000 and 300,000. The current projection of UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is 320,000 to 457,000, with the most likely number 371,509.
In Kentucky, the institute estimates 4,048 total deaths by Jan. 1, more than four times the current six-and-a-half-month total in little more than three more months. Even with 95% mask wearing, it estimates 2,099 deaths from COVID-19 in Kentucky by the end of the year.

(Original story at KHN, written by Al Cross)

9/27 update — Case numbers virtually assure worst week yet; student parties near UK stir worry about campus cases thwarting K-12 classes

The state recorded 456 more cases of the novel coronavirus yesterday, virtually guaranteeing that it will report the highest weekly number of cases yet, once the numbers are checked and adjusted.

The seven-day rolling average of daily new cases was 733, midway between the previous two days, and the unadjusted number of cases for each of those 7-day period was more than 5,100. The highest number for any of the state’s official Monday-to-Sunday reporting weeks has been 4,742, Aug. 31-Sept. 6.

“We know we must do better if we want to continue on the path toward regaining the parts of our lives that have been on hold,” Gov. Andy Beshear said in a press release. “If we want to protect each other and our economy, if we want to get our kids back to school, the message is clear for Team Kentucky: Wear a mask, maintain social distance, wash your hands regularly and avoid crowds.”

Neighborhoods around the University of Kentucky campus were filled Saturday afternoon “with large groups of young people, most of whom were not wearing masks,” Karla Ward reports for the Lexington Herald-Leader. “Scores of students attended parties in yards in the area around Elizabeth Street,” off South Limestone Street, as the UK football team played its opening game in Auburn, Ala.

Also on Saturday, Lexington reported 110 new coronavirus cases; exactly half of whom were college students. Ward noted concern that cases from the campuses are keeping Fayette County from returning to in-person schooling, as most counties will Monday.

Nikki Fast Pollock, who lives in a neighborhood near UK’s football stadium, told Ward that seeing students holding parties without masks or social distancing is “just kind of like a slap in the face.” Ward reports, “She said her son started kindergarten this year, and she’s had to explain to him that maybe he’ll get to go to school later, but he has to learn on the computer first.”

University spokesman Jay Blanton “said UK and Lexington police have been sharing information about reports of large gatherings, and university officials are ‘following up with property managers’ when they get reports about specific addresses where parties are being held,” Ward reports. Blanton said a socially-distant football watch party at UK’s baseball stadium drew about 500 students.

“Students who violate UK’s social distancing policy, even if the violation is off campus, can face consequences ranging from a warning to suspension or expulsion,” Ward notes. “So far this year, UK has found about 100 students guilty of violating the rules.”

Lance Poston, a UK official helping run the university’s response to the pandemic, told the Fayette County school board last week that only 5.5 percent of total exposures in UK’s tracking system are among Fayette County residents not affiliated with UK, “meaning the university is not contributing in any substantive way to what would be characterized as community spread,” the Herald-Leader reported.

In other COVID-19 news:

Schools in Clinton County resumed in-person classes Wednesday, Sept. 23, after going remote and initially planning to be on a COVID-driven hiatus until Oct. 12. Supt. Tim Parson “said he didn’t think the county would recover so quickly,” the Clinton County News reports.
Beshear announced three more COVID-19 deaths Sunday, bringing the state’s death toll to 1,157. The fatalities were a 97-year-old woman from Bell County, an 87-year-old man from Kenton County, and an 81-year-old woman from Fayette County.
Counties with more than five new cases on the state’s daily report were Jefferson, 94; Fayette, 61; Madison, 20; Warren, 19; Henderson, 16; Hardin, 13; Daviess, 10; Greenup, Jessamine, Kenton, Letcher and McCracken, 9 each; Bell, 8; Boone and Harlan, 7 each; and Boyd, Campbell, Estill, Knott, McCreary and Oldham, 6 each.
Sixty of the newly reported cases were in Kentuckians 18 and younger, of whom 10 were 5 and younger, the release said. The youngest was 2 months old. Other figures won’t be announced until Monday due to limited reporting on Sundays, Beshear’s release said.

(Original story at KHN, written by Al Cross)