Let’s analyze the races in the Kentucky House

Publisher’s note – Trent Garrison will be with us on The State of Kentucky on Friday, 10/30, to talk about this analysis. Join us on Facebook or YouTube at noon!

An analysis by Dr. Trent Garrison

It would be prudent for me to start off by saying that elections are usually at least somewhat unpredictable in any state; that can especially be true in Kentucky. We have a rich history here of bucking national political trends, particularly on the state level. Even though a national Republican figure may be very popular, a Democrat in a R+20 state-level district may win by +10 simply because she is popular in that community.

For this project, I used the last two elections (2018 House results and the 2019 Beshear results) to quantify all 100 state House races. Using Beshear’s numbers in 2019 is admittedly tricky because there were other state races, and Beshear’s numbers are more optimistic, but I decided to use it over 2016 data as it is more recent, and I think it at least provide a baseline. Below are the labels I used:

But when going through the list, I noticed that I don’t always agree with the neat little categories. I believe certain races have their own nuances and quirks. How does one deal with this?

Instead of relying 100% on quantitative analyses, some pundits weight their projections by using polls & voting trends (75%) versus other factors (like the quality of the candidate and “the feeling on the ground“) for the other 25%. For state-level races, we usually don’t have the luxury of using polls. So we are restricted to using recent district voting trends, and because there are 100 House districts, it would be impossible to know the “feeling on the ground“ for each one.

Having said that, I have lived all over Kentucky (from Hyden, where I grew up, to Richmond, to Frankfort, to Louisville, to Lexington, to Northern Kentucky, and back). I have also been fortunate enough to meet many of these legislators and candidates through previous legislative work, and know some awesome political science minds, so all of this could be somewhat helpful. Still, I think it’s best that I rely primarily on previous results compared to feelings about the races (let’s say, 90% to 10%). While this will provide the baseline I mentioned above, I can only guarantee one thing … that is, I will be wrong on some of these.

So with that qualifier, let’s take a look! Below is my analysis of where the state House stands:

For your perusal, I’ve listed all the House races below (based upon the 2018 margins and Beshear’s 2019 race) in numerical order based upon the 2019 results. The party in control is indicated by color (blue for Democrats, red for Republicans). In some seats, I elected to use unknown due to specific circumstances that may have an outsized influence on the race, or simply my admitted unknowns about the new candidate(s).

[supsystic-tables id=8]

Just by looking at the numbers, one could conclude that 16 seats are in play (see right column): 8 for Democrats and 8 for Republicans. But think back to past unexpected wins and losses. Some in the safe or even solid category may be vulnerable. It depends on what’s going on in that district. What about legislators like Goforth or Lewis? Both are in the solid zone, but have had personal issues, as well as decent opponents, which may change the race in a way that would not happen in a normal year. Side note: You may also notice that there are quite a few uncontested seats (blank spots). You can’t win if you don’t play.

Having said all of this, on a very good night, either party could gain quite a few seats. Given that Trump is fairly popular in Kentucky (up by 17.5), that may help Republicans. But as a political scientist friend and field organizer noted recently, many Kentuckians may not be voting straight-ticket this year. This is a function of having many races on the ballot, a better-than-usual voter-education campaign, and maybe just ornery Kentuckians. See below for some close bellwether districts I’ve chosen to watch (closest ones marked with 🔥):

• 8th – Pam Dossett vs. Walker Thomas (could be a Dem pickup)
• 10th – 🔥 Dean Schamore vs. Josh Calloway (could be a Dem loss)
• 29th – Suzanne Kugler vs. Kevin Bratcher (could be a Dem pickup)
• 33rd – 🔥 Margaret Plattner vs. Jason Nemes (could be a Dem pickup)
• 45th – 🔥 Shirley Flynn Mitchell vs. Killian Timoney (couple be a Dem pickup)
• 69th – Ryan Neaves vs. Adam Koenig (longer shot, but could be a Dem pickup)
• 70th – 🔥 Craig Miller vs. William Lawrence (could be a Republican pickup from Simms’ old seat)
• 72nd – Todd Neace vs. Matthew Koch (longer shot, but could be a Dem pickup)
• 81th – 🔥 Mike Eaves vs. Deanna Frazier (lean Dem; could be a Dem pickup)
• 96th – Kathy Hinkle vs. Patrick Flannery (close; could be a Dem loss)
• 99th – Bill Redwine vs. Patrick White (longer shot, but could be a Dem pickup)

The Bottom Line: With many retirements and a changing political landscape in Kentucky, there are lots of uncertainties. After talking to people on the ground smarter than me and incorporating their thoughts into these data, I believe Democrats will pick up a few seats around Lexington, Louisville, and maybe a few other places, and lose a few seats in rural areas. On a typical night, I think the political makeup of the state House doesn’t change more than 0-4 seats. But if, for whatever reason, one party is having a particularly good night, they could pick up as many as 8 or so (see R 1-8 and D 1-8 in yellow in the chart).

Regardless, there will be a number of new faces in the 2021 Kentucky General Assembly due to retirements.

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* I apologize if I misspelled names. I had to compile this information quickly for the publication.
**I appreciate the help and advice of Troy Ransdell and Dr. Laurent Vesely.

Trent Garrison Bio

Trent Garrison grew up in the beautiful hills of Hyden, Kentucky. With a natural interest in science, he later went on to attend Eastern Kentucky University (BS in Geology and MS in Hydrogeology) and eventually University of Kentucky (PhD Environmental Geology). Trent worked for the state for 7 years and, while there, developed an interest in state government policy, so decided to further his education at Kentucky State University (Public Administration and Management). In the last several years, Dr. Garrison has focused on state government policy (specifically science policy) in state and non-profit Legislative Liaison roles. He also teaches as an adjunct at KCTCS and EKU.