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Will Dems flip any KY House or Senate seats? Robert Kahne analyzes the chances.

While most eyes will be focused on the Presidency and control of the U.S. Senate on election night(/week), there are also elections for the Kentucky legislature this year. Robert Kahne, the co-host of My Old Kentucky Podcast, takes a look at a number of races for both the state Senate and the state House, and gives his predictions on possible pickups and losses for both parties.

A reminder of where we are

  • Republicans currently hold the House by a 62-38 margin. If the Democrats can pick up a net of three seats, they can break a supermajority. That doesn’t matter *too* much, as a supermajority is only required for bills which would levy taxes, and I don’t think the GOP is looking to do that, even though we desperately need new revenue. A supermajority is also needed to put constitutional amendments on the ballot.

  • The Senate is even more Republican, at 28-10. Only half the Senate is up for a vote this year, and 7 of the seats up for election are currently held by Democrats and 12 are held by Republicans.

Senate landscape

Even though all but three of the Democrats’ Senate seats are up for election this year, only two are at any risk at all. Most aren’t even contested: Reggie Thomas’ seat, in the heart of Lexington, as well as four of the Louisville seats (Morgan McGarvey, Denise Harper Angel, Gerald Neal, and Perry Clark’s old seat – now David Yates’ seat).

  • (Senate 7) Joe Graviss, who currently represents Woodford County in the House, is trying to make the move to Julian Carroll’s Senate seat as the former Governor is finally, ultimately retiring. Adrienne Southworth is the Republican running here – you might remember her as Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton’s chief of staff who was fired by Matt Bevin and/or evil forces. This seat includes some of the best non-Louisville or Lexington territory in Kentucky including Woodford and Franklin Counties, but it also includes lots of area to the north which is not very favorable towards Democrats. This seat was carried by Andy Beshear and Heather French Henry, but none of the other Democrats last year.

  • (Senate 29) The seat which seems to be the most under threat for Democrats is Johnny Ray Turner’s seat in southeast Kentucky. Johnny Ray Turner went unopposed in 2016, 2012, and in 2008, but this year drew an opponent, named “Johnnie Turner.” This seat includes some of the best Eastern Kentucky counties for Democrats, including Letcher, Floyd, and Knott, but none of the statewide candidates carried this seat in 2019.

  • (Senate 23) Democrats are challenging six seats held by Republicans. One is ripe for the picking: the Northern Kentucky seat held currently by Chris McDaniel in which Ryan Olexia is running as the Democrat. This seat includes Covington, the fifth largest city in Kentucky, and has swung hard for Democrats lately. Andy Beshear carried this seat, and Heather French Henry lost by less than 300 votes. Democrats have also been campaigning hard here.

  • (Senate 31) The next best seat for Democrats is probably the 31st District in Pike County and parts northwest. This seat was held by Democrats forever, and Pike County was one of the last countries to remain in the Democratic column on the Presidential level. However, Phillip Wheeler won a special election for this seat when Ray Jones won the Pike County Judge Executive race. The only Democratic county for this seat is really Elliott, which is very small, but Morgan and Pike have been close in the recent past, and *might* surprise us. Glenn Hammond is the Dem running for this seat.

  • (Senate 17) One seat Democrats would love to win is the 17th District, where Damon Thayer is the Senator. This seat includes the area along I-75 from Georgetown to Independence. Thayer is one of the most strident Republicans in the legislature, and almost always draws an opponent even though he very rarely gets less than 65% of the vote. This year, Jason Stroude is the Democrat running for the seat. Andy Beshear actually carried two of the three counties in this seat — Scott and Kenton. However, he lost Grant County by a huge margin and the parts of Kenton County in this district are much more Republican than Covington. Andy Beshear lost this district by about 3,000 votes overall.

  • Also:

    • Democrats are also running in the Boone County seat, which is still a very Republican county.

    • In London, Albert Robinson, who had served since 2013, lost his primary. Even though two newcomers are running for this seat, it will be hard for Democrats to win here.

    • The Franklin/Scottsville area has been represented by a Democrat in the House for a long time, but David Givens, a Republican, has held the Senate seat in that area (which also includes the much larger Glasgow) since 2013. He is opposed by Brian Pedigo, but this is very Republican territory.

House landscape

The House will be very interesting this year. Democrats have several opportunities to pick up seats in urban areas which have long been represented by Republicans, but where Democrats are surging. However, they are facing a wave of retirements which will be very hard to hold.

Pickup opportunities for Democrats (5)

  • (House 45): Stan Lee retired from his Lexington district which was won by Andy Beshear and Heather French Henry (and almost by Greg Stumbo!). Shirley Mitchell is running as the Democrat against Killian Timoney. I think this is the most likely Democratic pickup.

  • (House 29): Republican Kevin Bratcher is running for his 12th term in his southeast Louisville district, and is being challenged by Suzanne Kugler. He won by fewer than 1400 votes last time, and suburban areas are likely to go heavily for Joe Biden in the Presidential election this year. I think this is a good chance for a pickup.

  • (House 33): Republican Jason Nemes has worked hard to establish himself as an independent-minded, Susan Collins-type Republican in his east Louisville/south Oldham county district. He is opposed by Margaret Plattner. Of all the troubled Republicans, Nemes is working the hardest to maintain his seat, I think, but he very well could be swept away if Democrats win big in the suburbs.

  • (House 81): Richmond is Democratic territory, but the 81st has been GOP for two straight elections after being caught up in the Trump 2016 wave and then seeing Andy Barr campaign heavily against Amy McGrath in 2018. In 2018, Morgan Eaves lost this seat by 24 votes. Her Dad, Mike Eaves, is taking on incumbent Deanna Frazier this year in a seat Andy Beshear won 59-41.

  • (House 99): Rocky Adkins’ old seat flipped in a special election because the Republican county (Lewis) turned out “like a Presidential year.” Well, now it *is* a Presidential year, and it’s likely in my eyes that Rowan and Elliot will turn out at the same relative rate as Lewis this time. I can definitely see Bill Redwine taking this seat back for Democrats.

Stretch Territory for Democrats (6)

  • (House 72): Sannie Overly served in this Paris-based seat until she abruptly didn’t file for reelection in 2018. Emily Ferguson lost her campaign by 4 points that year to Matt Koch. Rep. Koch now faces Todd Neace, who is connected to the education system. Andy Beshear carried this district last year, and it has historically been pretty Democratic, but parts of it are certainly trending the wrong way. In a big Democratic year, it could absolutely flip back.

  • (House 69): Adam Koenig, like Jason Nemes, is a Republican who has worked hard to establish himself as more moderate than many of his colleagues. He serves Erlanger, and was a leading voice for legalized gambling during the most recent session. He serves in a suburban district which was won by Andy Beshear and is definitely trending towards Democrats. But, Northern Kentucky is less progressive than Louisville, so it would take a bigger wave to take out Koenig probably. Ryan Neaves is the Dem in this race.

  • (House 8): Most of Western Kentucky is a lost cause for Democrats in 2020, but Hopkinsville has always been different. One of the Blackest districts in Kentucky, it has been consistently more Democratic than the rest of the region. The district was held by Democrat John Tilley for a long time, and then flipped between Democrat Jeffrey Taylor and Republican Walker Thomas during the 2016 special election (Taylor), the 2016 general election (Thomas), and then was held by Walker Thomas in 2018. This year, Pam Dossett is taking on Rep. Thomas. In a wave, it would not be shocking to see the 8th go for Democrats.

  • (House 27): Nancy Tate won this district away from Jeff Greer by *6* votes in 2018 after running a campaign mostly about abortion. Greer decided not to try again, and Brian Chism is giving it a shot. This district has been Democratic for much of the past and is kind of exurban Louisville. It would not be too surprising to see it flip back.
  • (House 3): Any district that includes a decent sized city could be close, and Paducah’s district has been close recently. Corbin Snardon is a young Black teacher running against Randy Bridges. This seat was Democratic before the Trump wave. A wave in the other direction could put it back to where it was before.
  • (House 62): This district includes a sliver of Lexington, and was within striking distance of Andy Beshear (63 votes!) in 2019. This seat was Democratic until Ryan Quarles won the seat in the tea party wave of 2010. It flipped back to Democrats in the 2016 special election, but was won back in the general election later that year. This year, David Mayo is running a minimal campaign (after I personally convinced him to file!), and I really do believe in a huge wave, this seat could flip.

Democratic Retirement Woes (7)

Several Democrats have retired this year, meaning that Republicans have a ripe opportunity to pick up some rural areas which have been trending towards them for a long time.

  • (House 22): Wilson Stone held down this Allen/Simpson county district for Democrats against a huge tide of Republicans for a long time. He’s sick with cancer, though, and is retiring. David Young, who is attached to the Allen County-Scottsville school system, is the Democrat running against Shawn McPherson, the Republican. This district will be carried by President Trump, and will be a difficult hold for Democrats.

  • (House 93): Chris Harris is running for Supreme Court this year, and is giving up his Pikeville/Martin County seat. Harris was actually commended by the DNC in 2016 for being the state legislator who won the state legislative district where President Trump performed the best that year. Harris increased his margin substantially in 2018, but Pike County has trended the wrong direction – Matt Bevin won that county pretty big, and also carried this district. Rod Varney is the Dem running for this seat.

  • (House 70): John Sims, one of the younger Democrats in the House caucus, decided not to run for reelection. Josie Raymond told us on the show that it’s hard for parents of young kids who live more than an hour or so from Frankfort to serve in the legislature, and Sims fits that category. Now, Craig Miller is running as the Democrat and William Lawrence is running as the Republican. Matt Bevin won this district by a substantial margin.

  • (House 91): Cluster Howard decided not to run for reelection this year in the “gateway to Appalachia” district after going two-for-three against Toby Herald in 2014, 2016, and 2018. Paula Clemons-Combs is running for this seat now as the Democrat. Toby Herald also decided not to run, and instead Bill Wesley is running as the Republican. This is a unique district, which was won by Matt Bevin by a small margin.

  • (House 47): Rick Rand used to be one of the most powerful chairmen in Frankfort when he ran the Appropriations and Revenue committee. Once the GOP was swept in, they kicked him *all the way off the committee* so he wouldn’t intimidate the new GOP chair. Rand dutifully ran for another term in 2018, but is retiring now, and I don’t blame him too much. Jack Couch (D) is running against Felicia Rabourn (R) in this district which follows I-71 from Henry to Gallatin County. Matt Bevin won here, too.

  • (House 39): Russ Meyer decided not to run for a fourth term in the Nicholasville district, opening up the seat for Carolyn Dupont, who ran for State Senate in 2018. Her opponent is Matt Lockett, who is the chair of the Jessamine County GOP. Matt Bevin won this district by about 300 votes.

  • (House 56): Joe Graviss left this seat to run for State Senate, and Lamar Allen surprisingly (to some) won the primary. This district includes all of Woodford County, and a piece of Fayette — and Mr. Allen is from the Lexington part of the district. Allen is both Black and young, and maybe because of that the GOP has started targeting this seat as a possible flip. But, even back in 2016, James Kay won this seat by a 60-40% margin and Andy Beshear won this seat 58-42%.

Democratic incumbents in tough races (3)

  • (House 96): Kathy Hinkle won this Lawrence/Carter county district by *5* votes in 2018, taking it from incumbent Jill York. This year she is facing Patrick Flannery. It’s a swingy district – while Democrats are looking good this year nationally, it’s hard to say how the rural/urban divide will work in Eastern Kentucky.

  • (House 95): Ashley Tackett Laferty won Greg Stumbo’s old Floyd County seat by a significant margin after it flipped to Republicans in the Trump wave. She’s being challenged by William Matt Reynolds. Andy Beshear won this district. I think it’s pretty safe, but I’ve been overconfident before!

  • (House 13): Who can forget Owensboro after the 2018 election? Jim Glenn picked this seat up for Democrats by a single vote (and a lot of drama ensued). Rep. Glenn is running against D.J. Johnson for the third straight time. Johnson won the seat in 2016 away from Rep. Glenn. This race is often tight, but small cities seem to be growing more Democratic (Owensboro has bucked this trend a bit), and Andy Beshear won this seat 57-43%.

  • Democrats have several other incumbents who *should* be pretty safe: Rob Wiederstein in Henderson, Terri Branham Clark in Ashland, Derrick Graham in Frankfort, Charles Wheatley in Covington, Rachel Roberts in Newport/Bellevue/Dayton, Alan Gentry and Jeff Donohue in Louisville, and Susan Westrom in Lexington. The only two urban seats that could cause any consternation for Democrats are Cherlynn Stevenson and Maria Sorolis, but with Donald Trump on the ballot I think their suburban districts are safe and likely will be much bigger wins for them this year.

  • Republicans have a pretty significant supermajority and didn’t recruit many candidates in heavily Democratic areas in Louisville or Lexington, and also seem to have given up on Patti Minter’s seat and Angie Hatton’s seat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GOP try to redistrict their seats away next time.

This is already way too long! But, you can and should take action if you can. Kentucky legislative races have been really close lately and if you can write postcards or make calls or do anything you should give it a shot!

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