A new poll from Civiqs has Charles Booker leading Amy McGrath in the Democratic Senate primary – but has Mitch McConnell beating them both in the general election.
Among those who planned on voting in the Democratic primary, Booker was the choice of 44% of respondents, while 36% chose McGrath. Mike Broihier got 4%, Mary Ann Tobin 1%, and “Someone Else” got 4%. There were 11% unsure.
In the overall Senate race, McConnell beat McGrath 53-33, and beat Booker 52-38. This in spite of the fact that McConnell is underwater in his approval ratings, with only 43% having a favorable opinion of him and 48% having an unfavorable opinion.
In terms of overall favorability, here are the numbers for McGrath and Booker:
| Candidate | Favorable | Unfavorable | Unsure |
| McGrath | 24% | 59% | 18% |
| Booker | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Crosstabs
The crosstabs are somewhat interesting. First, breakdown by party and gender, for both McConnell–McGrath and McConnell-Booker. (Barron is the Libertarian candidate)
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Then, the same pairings, but this time broken down by age range.
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And finally, the head-to-head of Booker, McGrath, Broihier, and Tobin in the Democratic primary, broken out by age range. Note Booker’s appeal to younger voters, and McGrath’s to older.
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About the poll
From the cover of the poll report:
“This report contains the results of a Civiqs survey of 898 registered voters in Kentucky from June 13-15, 2020. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com.
“The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, and party identification to be representative of the population of registered voters in Kentucky The general design effect due to weighting is 1.34. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.8% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect. All survey results in this report are reported as percentages.”
We should note that their demographics could be argued with, especially balance of Democrats to Republicans in a year when Dems seem especially fired up. And the age breakout in terms of who actually shows up at the polls may be off as well. But, that remains to be seen.
| Party ID Democrat 20% Republican 43% Independent 37% |
Age |
For those interested, here is the entire report (PDF).
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