Public Policy Polling, one of the leading polling companies in the country, has just released a new poll of voters in Kentucky, and it contains some interesting possibilities for Kentucky Democrats.
The poll was conducted May 14-15, and included 1,104 voters. The polling report includes various cross-tabs, and the full results can be seen here. The margin of error in the poll is ±3%.
Top-line results
Here are the headlines from the poll, according to PPP:
- McConnell underwater. “Only 41% of voters approve of the job he’s doing, to 48% who disapprove. Only 69% of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, and independents split against him 30/53.”
- McConnell in danger in fall election. “McConnell only has a 47-44 lead against a generic Democratic opponent. By contrast Donald Trump has a 16 point lead over Joe Biden in the state, 55/39.”
- Trump slipping. “Although Trump is up, his lead is still well down from his 30-point margin of victory in 2016. 53% of voters in the state say they’re ‘very concerned’ about the coronavirus, with 84% saying they’re at least ‘somewhat concerned.’ Only 16% say they’re not that concerned. Trump’s diminished standing in the state could be a function of voters not being that impressed with his handling of the virus – only 52% approve to 42% who disapprove, pretty low numbers in the context of his winning 63% in the state in his first campaign.”
- McConnell “bankruptcy” a losing idea across the board. Every demographic in the poll thought it was a terrible idea.
Interesting items in the cross-tabs
- Trump voters possibly voting for the Dem in the Senate race. Of people who voted for Trump in 2016, only 76% say they will vote for McConnell this fall. 14% say they will vote for the Dem, and 10% aren’t sure how they’ll vote.
- McConnell less popular with women than Trump. 54% of women support Trump over Biden, but only 44% of women support McConnell over his Dem challenger.
- A fourth of Dems polled would vote for Trump over Biden. And 6% of Repubs would vote for Biden over Trump.
- Neither Trump nor McConnell have support among African-Americans. Trump is at 8%, McConnell at 14%.
- Coronavirus and race: African-Americans are much more concerned about the coronavirus than whites.
- Older voters backstopping Mitch. McConnell loses to the Dem with voters under 45 years old; he wins with those over 45.
- Louisville isn’t the only Dem stronghold. The 6th Congressional District (Lexington-Frankfort-Richmond) dislikes Trump almost as much as the 3rd (Louisville).
- Mitch’s support drops in the cities. McConnell’s approval is lowest in the 3rd CD (24%), the 6th CD (30%), and the 4th CD (38%). Everywhere else he is over 50%.
- Biden wins the cities. By the same token, Biden’s numbers are strongest in the 3rd (60%), 6th (52%), and the 4th (40%).
- And just to close, here is a graph showing the poll results for McConnell vs a Democratic challenger by Congressional district.
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