[custom-related-posts title=”Earlier posts in this series” none_text=”None found” order_by=”date” order=”ASC”]
Let me begin by saying that I put off writing this installment in the “Dear Kentuckians” series, because I wasn’t sure how negative or positive to be in my possibilities for our collective New Normal. The current situation is so fluid, and the future with the pandemic so uncertain, that any attempt at discussing what our lives might be like a year from now seemed at best futile, and at worst presumptuous.
And yet, it seems to me that we are coming to multiple tipping points – in government, in healthcare, in society itself. As I have pointed out before, the Greek word for “crisis” is also the word for “opportunity.” We are in the midst of a crisis; whether we seize the opportunity for real, positive change across our society is up to us.
The piece focuses primarily on political and government-level scenarios. I considered including other changes I think are coming: more use of telehealth, more online learning, things like that. But I decided that doing so would turn this article into a novella, so I nixed those topics.
Finally, let me acknowledge that some of the following may seem either horribly dystopian or naively pollyannaish. I get that. But, as a student of history, I also know that change — both positive and negative — sometimes comes quickly and unexpectedly. I am hopeful that, in the midst of this generational crisis, positive change is on the way.
Four levels of a negative new normal
Here are the four negative possibilities I see for our “new normal,” in descending levels of impact. Note that I am not predicting these; in fact, I will do all I can to prevent them. Nevertheless, in my estimation each of these is at least possible.
Bad Level 1 – Trump is re-elected, but nothing much changes otherwise.
- Donald Trump wins re-election this fall, McConnell is re-elected, Republicans hold the Senate, the Dems hold the House.
- We continue to deal — poorly — with the pandemic.
- We continue dealing with the recession caused by the pandemic.
- We continue to mouth platitudes about taking care of each other, but government continues to reward the wealthy and ignore everyone else.
Bad Level 2 – Trump is re-elected, and proceeds to consolidate power, becoming yet another democratically-elected autocrat.
- Following the example of Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, and Orban in Hungary, Trump and his family and entourage start re-shaping the United States into their own fiefdom.
- He expands his reach into the government’s coffers for his own enrichment.
- His hand-picked judges begin issuing rulings in favor of Trump’s friends and against Trump’s enemies. Any judge that stands up to him is viciously attacked verbally, removed from office on made-up charges, or physically threatened until he resigns.
- He carries out his threat to take down independent journalism by expanding libel laws so far that all reporting has to be favorable to him.
- And so on. (For more, read “How Democracies Die” by Levitsky and Ziblatt.)
Bad Level 3 – Our fractured society descends into civil unrest, random acts of violence, and eventual civil war and/or the dissolution of the union.
- Online groups, many of them secret, plan demonstrations and even attacks on “the other,” even as they spread conspiracy theories and hatred.
- The protests by one political group against the other, and vice versa, begin turning violent. More and more of these protests are accompanied by armed persons.
- In order to protect their citizens, local and state governments begin setting up check-ins on the roads into their jurisdiction.
- Majority-red and majority-blue states start talking about having to pull out of the union in order to maintain their local society as they wish, and to protect themselves from the other side.
Bad Level 4 – The pandemic continues to ravage the earth in repeated waves of infection and death, and global society collapses.
- As predicted, there is a second surge of COVID-19 in the fall. Unfortunately, it seems to have mutated, and is now both more contagious and more deadly.
- There is no vaccine yet, and treatments are less effective than before.
- Governments around the world begin putting the same measures in place: social distancing, shutting down businesses, and so on. This time, however, there is a massive pushback, with entire regions and their leaders publicly denouncing the reintroduced measures and vowing to ignore them.
- Meanwhile, the global economy, already reeling from the impacts of the first wave of the pandemic, teeters on collapse. Bankruptcies, both personal and business, sweep through each nation.
- Leaders of the major industrial countries try to come up with a plan, but the degradation of the relationships during the Trump era mean that no one trusts anyone else, and the talks break down. Eventually, it becomes every nation for themselves, and society becomes a matter of survival.
Note that all of the above ignores the other global crisis coming our way: the effects of climate change. Add that in with a repeated global pandemic, and you worsen the situation.
Note also that while I believe each of these scenarios is possible, I also believe they can be prevented or mitigated with humans working together to do so.
Now let’s turn to something a little more uplifting.
Four levels of a positive new normal
Good Level 1 – Trump is defeated, but nothing much changes otherwise.
- Trump loses the election, and willingly leaves power.
- Corporate politicians continue to be corporate politicians.
- Big money still dominates our political system.
Good Level 1.1 – McConnell is also defeated.
- A sigh of relief sweeps over the land.
Good Level 1.2 – Democrats take the Senate and hold the House.
- Progressives everywhere hold their collective breath to see if the new Democratic majority is going to actually move our country in a progressive direction, or simply nibble around the edges.
Good Level 2 – We implement changes that get us closer to what the rest of the world has had for some time, and that affect some of us.
- A new value of “essential” workers, including significant pay increases and more respect across society. This leads to a new interest in the teaching profession, just as schools look for persons who can make distance learning effective.
- A new union movement as a reaction to the power of corporations and to the corporation-centric economic system. Workers of all levels realize that they can make a difference when they organize, including protecting their own lives and health.
- Some form of expanded health-care for all persons who do not have it. Instead of “Medicare for All,” this is “Medicare if you need it.”
- Reinstate the Voting Rights Act, in reaction to the obvious voter suppression tactics of the 2016 / 2018 / 2020 elections.
Good Level 3 – We implement society-wide changes that begin to change our society.
- A universal living wage, indexed to inflation. This begins to lower the massive inequality that exists in the United States.
- Universal vote-by-mail, which increases turnout dramatically. As a result, the demographics of our elected officials begin to look more and more like the diverse nation they represent.
- A partial debt-free higher education, most likely a two-years-free at state-run colleges and universities.
Good Level 4 – We implement dramatic, sweeping societal changes.
- The tax system is redesigned to be much more progressive, much simpler, and with less loopholes and exceptions. This is needed to pay for the other changes that are coming.
- Universal Basic Income is put in place, indexed to inflation. This dramatically lowers the inequality in the nation, and it also leads to an explosion of entrepreneurship, as people are no longer tied to their low-paying job for survival.
- Universal health care is finally put in place.
- The United States rejoins the Paris Agreement on climate change, and governments at all levels begin attacking the problem with urgency, leading to a switch to renewables and the gradual abandonment of most fossil fuels.
Obviously, some of these are massive in their implications, and would most likely be the source of fierce battles in Congress and the courts. And yet, societies sometimes have “lightbulb moments” where they realize that things simply HAVE to change … and this may be one of those times.
In closing …
Are these all the changes I can foresee? Not at all; these are just the ones I thought I could describe in a summary fashion. For example, I see a new emphasis on unity and acceptance, including along racial and religious lines. I see a new emphasis on family and family time, and a new appreciation of friends and co-workers. And perhaps, we will rediscover the ability to disagree about policy and politics without hating each other.
Which ones of the above eight levels do I think are most likely? Assuming we actually have a free and fair election in the fall, I believe Donald Trump will be defeated by Joe Biden. Depending on how strong that victory is, I also believe Democrats will take the Senate, and Mitch McConnell’s reign of error will be over.
Ultimately, though, the outcome I see the most, and hope for the most, is a coming together of people across all sorts of divides, realizing that we have to work together to deal with not only the pandemic, but also the deep problems in our country that the pandemic has revealed. That is what I will work toward, as well as all the things in the Good levels, while at the same time pointing out and trying to stop any of the Bad level things.
I think we can do this. I think we may look back on this as a moment in time where we “came to our senses” and realized that we are all in this together, and that the way we were living and running our country and our world were not sustainable.
So let me close with a video that was shared with me called “The Great Realization.” It is set some time in the future, and is a father reading a modern fairy tale to his children. I hope it is more than a fairy tale; I hope it is part of our new normal.
A video from the YouTube channel of Probably Tomfoolery. Music by Katie Phillips / Sound Design by Sam Gee.
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