COVID-19: How is Kentucky doing compared to its neighbors?

Right up front, let’s be clear: Statistics can be misleading. Unless you pay attention to the underlying data, and to the context, you can often draw the wrong conclusions. Still, sometimes a stats snapshot can be helpful, particularly when the underlying data is solid.

After seeing the extensive statistics story that the New York Times put out about COVID-19 data by states and counties, I decided to compare Kentucky’s overall numbers with some other states. And, I must say I was gratified to see that the work done by both the leadership of the state and its citizens seems to be paying off.

A note to the naysayers: Yes, I know that the confirmed case rate is directly affected by the testing rate. A higher number of tests per capita is going to show more cases, and the NYT story doesn’t include stats for tests per capita. However, the death rates are what they are, and are not affected by the testing, obviously.

Here’s a table showing how we stack up compared to some of our neighbors. I included Georgia because Governor Beshear mentioned that state in a recent update. Also, the NYT story included graphs showing a rolling 7-day average of new cases, and then classified states into whether their new case rate seemed to be increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. I included that info as well.

(Side note: I find the Tennessee death rate number to be intriguing, to say the least. It could be that the virus is just beginning to take hold there, or that their population is younger and more healthy. It will be interesting to follow the numbers over time.)

So, overall I’d say Kentucky is doing pretty well, if not really well. It’s good to see, and good to share.

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