Preface to the series
This is the first of a five(?)-part series that lays out some facts and opinions about Kentucky, Kentuckians, COVID-19, and the future. The entire series, at least as outlined now, includes:
- Dear Kentuckians – Get these facts straight (this article)
- Dear Kentuckians – Don’t be stupid (read)
- Dear Kentuckians – Don’t get played (read)
- Dear Kentuckians – Your new normal, part 1
- Dear Kentuckians – Your new normal, part 2
This started out as one article, but grew so long I decided to break it up into these separate stories. This way, I can also refer to these as needed in the future without restating the entire thing, because these are all fairly fundamental concepts in our coronavirus discussions.
Basic facts to face up to
It seems incredible that these facts have to be laid out, but just so we’re all on the same page, here are some basic facts to face up to.
- You don’t know who has the virus. Any person you meet — EVERY person you meet — could have the COVID-19 virus. The checkout clerk, the mail carrier, the stranger walking beside you on the street, your aunt, your nephew, could all have the virus. And you can’t tell by looking. You have to assume that everyone is a potential carrier.
- You don’t know if YOU have the virus. We’ve all learned a new word: “asymptomatic.” It is possible to have the virus and be spreading it, and have no symptoms whatsoever. You could even be what’s called a “super-spreader” – one of those people who infects many more people than a normal carrier.
- You don’t know what effect COVID-19 will have on you if you get it, or already have it. There are basically four outcomes for persons who get the virus:
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- No symptoms (“asymptomatic”) but you’re still a carrier.
- Mild symptoms
- Severe symptoms
- Death
More basic facts to face up to
- There is no vaccine, and it is unlikely that one will be developed before 2021 or after. Creating a vaccine for a new disease is a complex and time-consuming task. Not only do you have to find something, or a combination of somethings, that make people immune to the disease, you also have to test it thoroughly to make sure it is not harmful in its own right. Those tests take time.
- There is not currently a definitive cure for the disease. Treatment typically includes “the kind of care given for influenza (seasonal flu) and other severe respiratory illnesses, known as ‘supportive care,’ according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).”Numerous existing drugs are being tested, and one, Remdesivir, shows promise. It is a general anti-viral drug developed a decade ago that has been found effective against a wide range of viruses.
- We are nowhere near “herd immunity,” and trying to get there by “opening things up” will put too many people at risk. Herd immunity is based on the concept that people who have had a disease often develop immunity to it, and therefore if enough people in a population have had the disease and have the necessary antibodies, it is harder for the disease to spread.Herd immunity can occur naturally, or it can be helped along by vaccination. In the case of COVID-19, though, the consequences of massive infection and the resulting impact on the healthcare systems, not to mention the accompanying deaths, make “just letting it go through the community” a particularly inhumane and immoral choice.
- Until there is a vaccine, the only way we have to prevent the virus from killing more people is to keep as many people as possible from becoming infected. That means social distancing, avoiding crowds where you can’t social distance, wearing masks, and staying home as much as possible. That means, in short, putting in place a new normal (massive testing, contact tracing, enforced quarantining, new ways of working, new ways of living).
It also means not being stupid and not being played. I’ll look at both of those cautions in the next two articles.
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