I am writing this late Monday night, before Super Tuesday, but after Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Biden. With most pundits calling this a “two-man race,” I thought it was time to remind people that there is a third candidate that not only is still in the race, but could make a better candidate than those two men.
When I analyze a candidate, I look at three things: their policies, their effectiveness as a candidate, and their effectiveness in the office if elected. It’s not just about the horse race; it’s also about what’s on the cart the horse is pulling, and what happens if the horse actually wins.
So, with only a few hours till Super Tuesday, here are my thoughts on these three candidates in those three areas.
Their Policies
Biden – If you liked Obama’s policies, you’ll probably like Biden’s. If you like incrementalism, or if you like moderate policies that might get implemented even with a Republican majority, then Biden’s your candidate.
And, if policy isn’t really that important to you, or you think it won’t matter because McConnell will still be there, and what matters to you is an “old hand” steady on the wheel, then Biden is probably who you want.
And before you say I’m being too harsh, try this: name one major policy initiative that Biden is a champion of, or associated with. And remember, “electability” isn’t a policy.
Sanders – In contrast to Biden, almost anyone in the country who is even halfway following politics can tell you one or more of Sanders’s policies: Some form of universal health care. Some form of inexpensive or free higher education. Higher taxes on the wealthy. And so on.
Sanders ticks pretty much every progressive policy box. That drove his campaign in 2016, and that continues to drive it today. Whereas Biden is the “incremental improvement” person, Sanders is the “Big change NOW on bunches of fronts!” dude. People who have been waiting for someone to put forward a vision of a system that works for everyone and not just the rich are excited by Bernie and his proposals. I’M excited by them.
But … you see that “some form of” phrase up above? THAT is a problem. Sanders has a great vision – but visionaries are often not so good at filling in the details. They are also sometimes not good at selling their vision, because their vision seems so obvious to them, so if you don’t see it, what is wrong with you?
Which brings us to Warren.
Warren – Warren ticks just as many progressive boxes as Sanders – plus probably thirty more boxes that some of us progressives hadn’t even thought of. And the difference between her and Sanders? She has the vision AND the plans.
The line “She’s got a plan for that” isn’t just campaign talk. This is a woman who is visionary, passionate, AND detailed. She knows the numbers, she knows the laws, and she either knows the answer, or knows the people with the answers.
Their Effectiveness as a Candidate
Biden – Joe Biden’s biggest plus as a candidate is his personality. He is warm, caring, comfortable in his own skin. He can be passionate, or he can be feisty. He wears well, especially with older voters.
But he has a serious problem as a candidate: the expanding and active left wing of the party, plus the large number of young people following Sanders. If Biden is the candidate, he may get the votes of the left and the young, but he won’t get their enthusiasm or their help. Most of them will vote for him if he is the nominee, because they’re not stupid; they know Trump is an existential threat to our country. But neither of these groups want More Of The Same From The Democratic Party.
Sanders – On the other hand, Sanders’s big plus is his supposed ability to motivate and turn out the progressive wing of the party AND young people and independents of all stripes. I have observed this with my own eyes: both of my adult sons are all in for Bernie, and will definitely vote for him if he is the nominee. Anyone else? Not so much. (Note, though, that that increased turn-out hasn’t been evident in the caucuses and primaries so far.)
But just as Biden has a problem with his candidacy, so does Bernie: He will get killed in the general by the attack ads. Sure, there are going to be attack ads no matter who runs; but the oppo book on Sanders must be at least four inches thick. His background, his comments, his votes, his party affiliation: all of these will be harped on and blasted out across the country, driving some voters to just stay home.
I don’t think he will be able to overcome this – not to the point of winning enough states to win the election. His base will vote for him, most Democrats will vote for him … but I’m not sure that will be enough.
Warren – Lost in the attention being paid to the two men is that Warren is a pretty good campaigner as well. She is personable, relates well to her audience, and connects with both individuals and groups.
And, she is a hell of a debater. Frankly, I would love to see her on stage with Trump. I think she would out-smart and out-debate him, AND do it in a way that will cause people who don’t know her that well to have a new-found respect for her.
The biggest plus for Warren that I see, though, is that she can keep both sides of the party. She is a progressive, and the progressives know that. But, she is also seen as solid and steady like Biden, and that will appeal to his voters.
There was one poll that asked people who their second choice was, if their candidate didn’t win. Warren was the choice of both the Sanders voters and the Biden voters. She can be both the unity candidate AND the winning candidate. I think she has the best chance of all three of beating Trump.
Their Effectiveness as President
Biden – Biden will be just what we expect: fairly calm and steady, able to relate to both parties on the Hill, able to get some things done or passed. He can probably work well enough with McConnell and the Republicans to move some legislation. Also, he will be a good person to work with and to work for.
The biggest question I have about him as president is his ability to do two things: cast a vision, and lead. He talks about “restoring” the country, but beyond the general thought of “we have to get back to doing things the right way,” I’m not sure if he can put a vision out there that is compelling.
And, can he move from the loyal VP to the all-alone-at-the-top Prez? Is he the kind of person who can not only relate, but also command respect? I’m not sure.
Sanders – Let’s be blunt: Bernie Sanders is a visionary, an idealogue (in a good way), a symbol of a movement. He has almost single-handedly moved the Overton window on a range of issues, from healthcare to taxing the wealthy to paying for college. In short, Bernie Sanders has made progressivism mainstream.
But I think he would be a terrible president. Why? Because visionaries usually don’t know how to compromise, or how to collaborate. They don’t know how to take half a loaf today, and try to get the rest another day. And if you don’t share their vision, they can wind up being dismissive or even confrontational.
There is certainly a time and a place to be confrontational, even in (perhaps especially in) the presidency. But having that as your normal modus operandi is not going to work in the White House.
And working with Congress? Not going to happen. McConnell and the Republicans will block everything Sanders proposes, even more than they did Obama.
Warren – I’m sure by now you know what I’m going to say: Out of the three, Elizabeth Warren would make the best president, by far.
She has the vision of where she wants to go. She knows the details of how to get there. She is both a fighter and a listener. And, she truly cares about people, and sees her work as a way to demonstrate that care in public service.
I think McConnell and the Republicans would underestimate her, which would be their mistake. Ultimately, I think she and McConnell would reach some understandings – but unlike Obama, I think Warren would not be shy about calling him out publicly. President Warren would have a plan, including a plan for moving legislation and working with people. She would, I think, wind up being one of our best presidents.
Final Thoughts
– We need a unity candidate. For the reasons I’ve listed above (plus some more I didn’t include), Elizabeth Warren is that candidate. If the convention goes to a second ballot, I hope enough people realize that she is the best choice.
– It’s time for the white males to step aside and let a woman (of any color) lead the country. It’s also time for more diversity, and Elizabeth Warren could bring that diversity in her running mate.
– And finally, it’s time for some young blood. Did you know that Donald Trump is the youngest man running? (Gah.) But guess what? Elizabeth Warren is younger than all of them.
I am hoping that Warren wins a good number of delegates tomorrow – enough that the pundits stop ignoring her. But whether she does or not, I want her to stay in the race. I want her to go to the convention still running. And I want the convention to wind up nominating her, because she is the best combination of policy, candidate effectiveness, and presidential effectiveness.
It’s time for President Warren.
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