We are two days away from the filing deadline for Election 2020, and once again, we have a significant number of unchallenged incumbents, as well as open seats that will probably not switch parties.
There is still time, of course, for more persons to file, and some of these open seats may still have the incumbent file – but as of noon today, here’s where things stand:
| Party | Total seats | Incumbent filed, no challenger | Incumbent filed w/ challenger | Open seat w/ no challenger |
Open seat w/ challenger |
% of seats unchallenged |
| House | ||||||
| Repubs | 61 | 33 | 22 | 6 | – | 64% |
| Dems | 37 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 57% |
| Senate | ||||||
| Repubs | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 83% |
| Dems | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 57% |
Obviously, the incumbency advantage is alive and well. And we know why: name recognition is one of the most important factors in local and state races, and incumbents already have a lead in that space.
But, if Democrats are so focused on taking away the super-majorities the Repubs have now, where are their challengers? Giving Republicans a start of 39 seats with no challenger (assuming the open seats remain Republican) seems like conceding the race before it starts.
Which strategy – every seat or targeted seats?
There are two strategies out there for how to fight an election:
- Challenge every seat, no matter how impossible, in order to keep your opponents busy and make them spend money.
- Figure out which seats are actually winnable, and focus your money and efforts there.
Frankly, I think both strategies are flawed. I get that you don’t have infinite money to throw around, so you assume you have to be circumspect with how you spend it. And of course, consultants and leaders often think they are smart enough to predict the future – but who saw Ocasio-Cortez knocking off a multi-term incumbent? Figuring out where you can win ahead of time shuts the door on grassroots effort and excitement.
I would like to see a strategy where the party encouraged as many people as possible to file to run, no matter how hopeless it might seem. Then, watch the fund-raising and volunteer numbers for each candidate, and dole out the money to the ones that are proving, on the ground, that they have a viable campaign.
It’s too late this year to try this (and, I’m not in charge, so this post is probably worth the pixels it is printed on). But, if we are serious about taking back some of the ground we have lost, we have to get serious about building a bench. And, one way you get name recognition is to run, even if you lose. Next time might be better.
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I’ll update this table again after the filing window closes on Friday. Let’s hope we’ve got more Dems running.
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