A second Donald Trump term portends a far worse outcome than the first one, according to Murray State University historians Bill Mulligan, Brian Clardy, and Ken Wolf.
“A [Trump] victory will be seen by white supremacists as an endorsement, and they will become more open and more violent,” said Mulligan, a professor emeritus of American history. “If he wins big over a progressive, there will be an open assault on people of color and Jews.”
Three Historians’ Predictions
If Trump Wins
- White supremacists become more open and violent
- Open assault on people of color and Jews
- A plutocratic oligarchy
- Continued loss of influence in world affairs
- Expanded Russian aggression
- Collapse of NATO
- China takes Taiwan; Japan and S.Korea go nuclear in self-defense
- Republicans push to amend Constitution to allow a third term
If Trump Loses
- He will refuse to accept the defeat; will sue in states where he lost
- Election result could wind up in Supreme Court, or McConnell could try to keep him in power
The trio predicts that on the 2020 campaign trail, Trump will continue to pander to racism, sexism, misogyny, nativism, homophobia and religious bigotry. “So if he wins, it will say more about us than it will about him,” said Clardy, an associate professor of American history.
“We know him; we have seen him govern. We heard his comments after Charlottesville. We’ve seen his tweets.”
Trump’s demagoguery, race- and immigrant-baiting, anti-democratic tendencies, and embrace of authoritarian rulers have caused some critics to compare him to German dictator Adolf Hitler.
Wolf said Trump “is far more ignorant and unstable than” Hitler, at least until the last months of his Nazi regime.
Even so, Wolf fears that if voters reward Trump with four more years, “the best we [can]…hope for is a plutocratic oligarchy. Some might say that we have that already.”
Trump’s foreign policy is a radical departure from previous presidents, Republicans and Democrats. He goes out of his way to cozy with the leaders of two of America’s most potent nuclear-armed enemies: President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Kim Jong-un, supreme leader of North Korea.
“Trump is especially dangerous when it comes to foreign policy,” Clardy said. “We have seen him make a fool out of us on the international stage. Our leadership abroad is very much diminished.”
The president accepts Putin’s denial that Russia hacked the 2016 election on Trump’s behalf, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.
U.S. intelligence experts warn against the likelihood of additional Russian interference in this year’s election. Mulligan expects the Russians to redouble their efforts to sabotage the vote via social media.
While Trump lavishly praises Putin, he is often sharply critical of America’s longstanding democratic allies and the NATO alliance.
If Trump gets in again, “Putin will smile and say ‘mission accomplished’ and step up the pace on reassembling the Soviet Union and satellite nations,” Mulligan said. “The free world will completely write us off. NATO will collapse. This will cause complete chaos in Europe.
“China will probably take Taiwan and become more aggressive. Japan and South Korea will have to go nuclear somehow, and that part of the world will be destabilized.”
Mulligan, Clardy and Wolf aren’t sure what Trump might do if he loses, especially if the election was close. “There could be a refusal to accept the verdict,” Mulligan said. “Then the future of the nation will be in the hands of [Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnell and the Republicans.”
If McConnell tries to keep a defeated Trump in power “it will be the most serious threat we have ever faced,” Mulligan said.
He has no doubt that Trump will challenge the vote if he comes up short in the electoral college. Trump will order his lawyers to file suit “in any state that is close and maybe not that close. He alleged millions voted illegally last time – and he won. If he loses, the sky is the limit,” Mulligan said, warning that the legal wrangling could wind up in the Supreme Court, with its 5-4 conservative majority, including two Trump-appointed justices.
Wolf thinks that the country “could rebound after a Trump defeat and a period of post-Trump suffering and chaos, and begin a process of political, ethical, and social renewal. From my point of view as a progressive Christian, I would love to see such a renewal.”
On the other hand, if voters extend Trump’s tenure, Mulligan halfway expects the Republicans to push to repeal the 22nd Amendment so the president can try for a third term. Mulligan is counting on Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to thwart any such move, if the opposition manages to hold its majority.
Mulligan foresees a 2020 in which progressives keep “struggling and scrambling to fulfill our ideals even if we sometimes fall short.” Trump and Trumpism, he added, will prevail “until as a nation we squash white nationalism/white supremacy with a united front of all against it.”
[click_to_tweet tweet=”Trump and Trumpism will prevail until, as a nation, we squash white nationalism/white supremacy with a united front against it. – Bill Mulligan” quote=”Trump and Trumpism will prevail until, as a nation, we squash white nationalism/white supremacy with a united front against it. – Bill Mulligan”]
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