We asked three different political analysts across Kentucky to give their opinion on how Andy Beshear’s first term as governor will go. And, as luck would have it, we got three fairly different viewpoints – one pessimistic, one moderate, and one optimistic.
Our three analysts are:
- David Hawpe, former Courier-Journal editor
- Dr. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky
- Dr. James Clinger, a political science professor at Murray State University
Our thanks to all three for sharing their insights. We’ll check back with them in a few years to see how close they got!
The Pessimist: Republican legislature will drive the train
Gov-elect Andy Beshear might not have much luck with the legislature, says a Murray State University political science professor.
“I imagine the General Assembly will act without him and will override any vetoes that he makes,” said Dr. James Clinger. (A simple majority of both chambers cancels a veto.)
Beshear’s a Democrat. The GOP enjoys Senate and House super-majorities.
Clinger said Beshear’s lack of experience as a legislator might also hurt him. “His career has been spent in litigation in the private sector and in filing suits as attorney general. He is accustomed to an adversarial process rather than bargaining among coequal branches of government.”
Clinger said Beshear will be able to make several appointments. But he added that the GOP holds all five constitutional offices.
Though Beshear defeated GOP Gov. Matt Bevin, Republicans captured the attorney general and secretary of state’s offices. (Beshear is the outgoing AG.) and GOP incumbents were reelected as auditor, treasurer and agriculture commissioner.
The Republican party commands a hefty 29-9 edge in the Senate. Only 39 of 100 House members are Democrats.
The whole House and half the Senate is up for reelection next year. “The Republicans will almost certainly hold on to the Senate, and I think it likely they will control the House, as well,” Clinger said.
Bevin ran hard on the social issues, notably immigration and abortion, and tried to portray Beshear as a “pro-illegals liberal.”
“The social issues will always be important, but I suspect that will be less in the news until some court decisions come down from the federal appellate courts,” Clinger said.
The state pension issue still looms large, Clinger said. “The pension mess is still not resolved. The General Assembly seems committed to funding the pensions better, but it is not clear that it will reform the pensions for new employees.
“That is a political nightmare. If the legislature does not make some changes going forward, the commonwealth is going to be terribly fiscally strapped.”
Clinger also said projected Medicaid costs will skyrocket. “Beshear will almost certainly rescind the Medicaid waiver application that Bevin had sought and which has been held up in the courts. That won’t make much difference in terms of cost.
“Medicaid is going to escalate in Kentucky with its aging population. That would have happened no matter who was elected governor. I don’t think there is much interest in raising taxes, so the money will probably need to be found from other areas of the budget.”
Clinger predicted it won’t “be a good time to be a state employee in Kentucky for the near future. Pension obligations and Medicaid spending are going to crowd out most current compensation. Many infrastructure projects will be deferred, too.”
The Moderate: Beshear will find common ground with Repubs on some issues
Governor-elect Andy Beshear, set to be sworn in next month, stumped the state promising to protect pensions for public employees, including teachers, police, firefighters, and other first responders.
Pension reform will be the biggest issue facing Beshear, a Democrat, and the GOP-super-majority General Assembly, according to Dr. Stephen Voss, a University of Kentucky political science professor.
Lawmakers return to Frankfort in January. Republicans command a whopping 29-9 Senate majority and a 61-39 bulge in the House.
“Financing those pensions already has required diverting funding from existing needs and programs, but without significant tax increases, the pressures on the budget will only get worse,” Voss said. “Ignoring the pension crisis would not appear to be an option for Beshear after he just narrowly won the governorship based on a campaign fought over that very issue.”
Beshear defeated Bevin by about 5,100 votes. He acknowledged that teacher support was vital to his victory.
“We’ve made a promise to our teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other public employees that they’ll be able to retire with dignity, and under my watch, Kentucky will keep that promise,” Beshear’s campaign website pledged to voters.
On the campaign trail, Beshear said he favored pumping more money into pensions through expanding gaming and legalizing medical marijuana, not a tax hike.
“Beshear’s party will want him to address the pension crisis through revenue increases so that he does not need to slice other policies and programs, but that seems unlikely because, even if he gets expanded gambling and taxable medical marijuana, avoiding budget cuts likely would require persuading GOP legislators to raise taxes again.” Voss said.
“Beshear’s big challenge will be balancing the promise to address Kentucky’s pension crisis, on the one hand, and the expectation among his supporters that he will adequately fund ongoing programs in education, transportation, and so on. The promises of the past are on a collision course with the need to invest in the future, and Beshear will be stuck trying to reconcile an almost impossible situation.”
Voss is more optimistic about the new governor finding common ground with Republican lawmakers on battling the drug addiction crisis in Kentucky. “Desperate to show that they can govern, the Democratic governor and Republican legislative leaders likely will figure out a way to address that public-health crisis.”
Reaching a consensus on health care will probably be harder, Voss said. “Beshear can stop executive initiatives set in motion by his predecessor, but ultimately keeping his promises with regard to health care requires budgetary approval from the legislature. The governor will find among the Republicans a subset of legislators committed to protecting benefits provided to their constituents, but coming up with proposals that please both moderate Republicans and his own party caucus likely will not be easy.”
Redistricting didn’t seem to generate much buzz in the governor’s race. But it will likely be an issue in next year’s legislative races. Redistricting will follow the 2020 census.
“The challenge for Republicans will be maintaining party unity,” Voss said. If the Republicans stick together on a plan, they can beat back a Beshear veto, he added. Under the state constitution, a simple majority of both houses overrides a veto.
“But party-drawn legislative maps often create enough disgruntled members that they might be tempted to embrace a rival plan instead.” Voss said that “maintaining perfect unity may not be easy if the maps are going to meet constitutional redistricting requirements.”
The Optimist: Shared values will lead to cooperation
Veteran Kentucky journalist David Hawpe doubts Andy Beshear will look to Matt Bevin as a role model.
“I think … Beshear will move carefully,” said Hawpe, 76, a former Louisville Courier-Journal reporter, bureau chief, columnist, editor, vice president, and editorial director. “His father worked quietly and cooperatively, when possible, with such Republican leaders as Senate President Robert Stivers, whose calm, deliberate, respectful approach to leadership has been in drastic contrast to the approach taken on the first floor of the Capitol for the last four years.”
The governor-elect will be inaugurated on December 10. He’s the son of Steve Beshear, whose two-term tenure as governor spanned 2007-2015. Both Beshears are Democrats.
There’s already like-father-like-son precedent. Steve Beshear was attorney general in 1979-1983. His offspring is the outgoing attorney general.
Steve Beshear unseated GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Andy Beshear thwarted Republican Bevin’s bid for a second term.
But while the elder Beshear won big both times he ran (He defeated Senate President David Williams in 2011), his son squeaked it. Gov. Bevin conceded defeat only after a recanvass upheld Beshear’s 5,100-vote victory on Nov. 5.
“I think it’s important that Democrats, including the new governor, recognize that a 5,000-vote margin is not a mandate for hubris, imperiousness, or presumption, especially when every Republican except Gov. Bevin won easily,” cautioned Hawpe, who retired in 2009 after a 40-year career at the C-J.
The GOP ran the table down ballot, ousting a Democratic attorney general and secretary of state. Republican incumbents won second terms as auditor, treasurer and agriculture commissioner.
“I’ve always believed that there are fundamental values shared by sensible members of both parties in Frankfort,” said the Pikeville-born Hawpe, a Kentucky Journalism Hall of Famer. “One is a desire to see young Kentuckians get a proper start in life. Another is the hope that we can keep the best and brightest of them here, by creating the opportunities they want and need.”
Added Hawpe: “One is loyalty to local school systems and their special role in Kentucky communities. Another is attachment to particular institutions, all of which are part of the public higher education system. Beyond that, every Kentuckian I know is proud of Kentucky’s unique history and beauty.”
Bevin faces GOP super-majorities in both houses. The Republicans enjoy a whopping 29-9 edge in the Senate and a 61-37 advantage in the House.
Even so, Hawpe thinks GOP lawmakers “will agree with the new Gov. Beshear that Kentucky needs to respect and strengthen its public schools, and to provide health care access to all Kentuckians who need it.”
He said the governor-elect “is not a spiteful person. Neither is President Stivers and neither is Speaker [David] Osborne. Actually the state budget dilemma is so drastic as the 2020 session approaches that the crisis itself will help encourage the new governor and the powerful legislators to work together.”
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