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Why McConnell should be scared

Will the Blue Wave surge through Kentucky in 2020? Last week’s election had a number of fly-by commentators weighing in, suggesting that electing a Democratic governor in Kentucky was an incredible feat – something akin to Doug Jones’ election to the Senate in Alabama — and an indication of just how powerful the Blue Wave might be.

Many looked ahead to what this might mean for Senator Mitch McConnell’s re-election in 2020. Does this election portend defeat for McConnell? A possibility of Kentucky turning blue in the presidential?

Here in Kentucky, we know that the political landscape is a little more nuanced than that. We’re not a purpley shifting state like Virginia or North Carolina, not at all. A Democrat winning the governorship is not a huge anomaly; in fact, it’s quite the opposite. Kentucky has elected only four Republican governors in its history. It has tended to vote Democratic for local and statewide races and Republican for national offices, though state elections are now becoming increasingly red.

I know there’s a snowball’s chance of Kentucky turning blue for the presidential next year. But I still think Beshear’s election shows many reasons why McConnell should be scared. Here’s five reasons I think McConnell should be worried for 2020:

1. Beshear’s winning coalition shows Kentucky’s urban/rural divide can be overcome.

Over the past decade, Kentucky’s urban/rural divide has been growing in elections, with Democrats winning in Louisville and Lexington and Republicans basically winning everywhere else. With Robert’s analysis from last week, we learned about Beshear’s winning coalition: Louisville/Lexington, northern Kentucky, urban centers of rural counties, and a smattering of eastern Kentucky counties. Add to that Beshear’s ability to limit his losing margins in rural counties that Bevin won, and you can now see a path to victory for Democrats in the state. As we’ve seen in recent elections, Democrats either lean too heavily on Louisville/Lexington to the neglect of the rural parts of the state, or ignore it to their peril. With the right amount of energy, organization, and the right candidate, Democrats can bridge the gap by churning up huge margins in the cities and winning enough of the state to shift the delta in their favor.

2. A record number of voters turned out for both parties. A Democrat still won.

Voter turnout shattered the 31 percent turnout projection by Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes with 42 percent of registered voters turning out. According to Dave Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight, the raw vote count went up 51 percent from 2015’s gubernatorial race. While all the other Republican candidates were able to win with healthy margins, Bevin lost by over 5,000 votes, signaling a willingness of Republican voters to split the ticket or abstain from voting for certain candidates. 

People really, really didn’t like Bevin and it showed. Exit polling shows 16 percent of Republicans chose to back Beshear. While Trump won Kentucky by 30 points in 2016, this election shows that Republicans are willing to vote for Republicans they really like and want to win while also being willing to not vote for Republicans they really don’t like. Which brings me to my next point …

3. Bevin was historically disliked. So is McConnell.

Bevin was one of the least liked governors in the country. In October, his approval rating was at 34 percent, with a 53 percent disapproval rating. McConnell’s approvals aren’t any better with a 37 percent approval versus a 50 percent disapproval rating. He tops the list as the most disliked senator in the country.

In his recent re-election bids, Democrats didn’t put forward the strongest candidates and McConnell was able to torch them. But since assuming his majority leader role in 2015, McConnell’s misdeeds and penchant for gridlock have become widely-known. He has also become vastly more wealthy while leaving most of Kentucky behind. He is now the face of Washington corruption. This message can strike a powerful chord with the same Kentuckians who voted Bevin out, not just because they didn’t like him but because they are concerned about healthcare, education, and good-faith governance.

4. Trump didn’t seem to help.

Despite his bogus claim that he gave Bevin a “15 or 20 point” bump when he held a rally in Lexington the night before Election Day, Trump still couldn’t get Bevin across the finish line. (Polls in the final week actually had Bevin with an advantage.) Even in a state where Trump is very popular, his endorsement appears to have done very little to mobilize any new support for Bevin.

As many have commented, Bevin did his best to nationalize this race, tying his opponent to national Democrats like Chuck Shumer and Nancy Pelosi and tying himself to Trump. While I don’t think McConnell is exactly friendly with the president, he is certainly one of Trump’s most ardent enablers. The two are sure to be on the campaign trail together. But it may not be as sure of a bet as they may think.

5. 130,000 people will soon have their voting rights restored.

Beshear indicated that one of his first priorities in office will be to re-enfranchise the 130,000 people who have lost their voting rights because of felony convictions. This was the same move his father made just before he left office but then Bevin halted it, saying that such a move should be decided legislatively. 130,000 new voters, if they all voted, would be an almost 10 percent increase over the 2019 turnout and could be a decisive voting bloc. No guarantees as to which way they might vote, but it could be a significant variable for 2020.

Democrats are starting to find a message that is sharp, indicting, and resonant with the people that Mitch McConnell has made a career out of exploiting. Beshear’s election showed there is a way forward. For these reasons, I think Mitch McConnell should be scared going in to 2020.

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Written by Chris Hughes for the “My Old Kentucky Podcast” newsletter. Sign up for the newsletter here. Reprinted with permission.