With Election Day fast approaching, Gov. Matt Bevin and Attorney General Andy Beshear have made President Donald Trump part of their strategies as they maneuver to motivate their respective bases.
For the past year, Trump has acted as a third figure of import in the gubernatorial election. He won a hefty 62.5% of Kentucky’s vote in 2016, got a 57% job-approval rating in the latest public poll in the state, and polls show Trump beating any Democrat in 2020 in Kentucky.
In a state so supportive of Trump, dealing with the president’s base is a vital part of both candidates’ strategies, according to University of Louisville political science professor Jason Gainous.
So, while Bevin continues to tout his record of collaboration with and support for Trump, Beshear has repeatedly distanced himself — and the race as a whole — from national politics. But recently he started a pitch to voters who don’t like Bevin but do like Trump.
A Mason-Dixon poll taken Oct. 10-13 showed Bevin’s job-approval rating at 45% and his disapproval at 48%. Trump’s rating in Kentucky was 57% approval and 39% disapproval.
Bevin’s rating was much better than the 38-53 split Mason-DIxon found in December. Gainous said Bevin’s status as a self-proclaimed political outsider and his “tell it like it is” speaking style may well appeal to those who voted in 2016 for Trump, many of whom cited his off-the-cuff style as a reason for their support. By tying himself to Trump, Gainous said, Bevin could mobilize a significant portion of the Republican base.
Bevin has touted his friendship with Trump and has run television commercials featuring him. Beshear has avoided talking about the president, but he recently started a commercial with endorsements from men who identify themselves as Trump supporters.
Bevin “cares about himself and his friends, who are literally putting us good, honest, hard-working people in harm’s way,” says Woody Ransdell, adding later, “I don’t usually vote for Democrats, but I will vote for Andy Beshear.”
One wedge issue for Trump supporters planning to vote for Beshear may be Bevin’s negative rhetoric regarding teachers and state employees, according to Gainous. “He’s lost a ton of support from teachers who may be Republicans,” Gainous said. “On top of that, plenty of Republican parents love their children’s teachers. They talk to their friends, and so on and so on.”
According to a Politico report, officials with Bevin’s campaign vigorously sought the president’s support to boost Bevin’s standing among Republicans. Those efforts have borne fruit: Last week, the Trump campaign announced a rally in Lexington scheduled for Monday, Nov. 4, the day before the election.
The 11th-hour push solidifies the import of a nationalized gubernatorial race in Kentucky. For Bevin, reelection may come down to whether Trump can spur their mutual supporters to the polls.
“I’ve made clear that I stand with this president, I will work with this president, I appreciate that he’s putting America first,” Bevin said during a debate in Lexington earlier this month. Bevin went on to accuse Beshear of planning to “actively oppose” Trump.
Soon after the primary election, Beshear told a group of Democrats in Louisville that his election would be a chance to “stop the negative policies of Donald Trump.” That quickly showed up in a TV ad attacking Beshear, and since then he has been largely silent about the president.
“This race isn’t about the White House,” he said in an Oct. 15 debate. “It’s about what’s going on in your house.”
Afterward, pressed about a link between the Kentucky race and the 2020 election, Beshear remained mum: “I believe that any governor has to be on Team Kentucky. We have to always do what’s best for our citizens and not be blindly allegiant to any president of any party.”
Beshear would not denounce or praise the president, nor the impeachment inquiry against him — a development that Bevin has tried to make a defining issue in the race.
Bevin has called the investigation of Trump’s request for Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden’s son an “absolute travesty” that is “destroying the nation.” He ran an ad attacking Beshear for not taking a stand on the inquiry. “It’s a yes or no question,” Bevin said. “Does he support impeachment of the president or does he not?”
Beshear replied, “Listen, I’m the state’s top prosecutor. I could only support impeachment if I saw evidence … All I’ve done is read stories. What I can say is that any proceeding moving forward has to be fair, it has to be impartial and it can’t be about scoring political points.”
That soft dig symbolizes Bevin’s and Beshear’s opposing priorities in the election: For Beshear, this race “isn’t about politics, it’s about right and wrong.” For Bevin, the race is increasingly about Trump.
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Emily Laytham, a University of Kentucky journalism student, is covering the 2019 gubernatorial race for The State Journal.